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A Lesson Relearned - Playing With An Edge

Additional Analyzing Dotty’s Double Up Promotion

Final week I went by way of the fundamentals of enjoying NSU Deuces Wild for $75 per hand and utilizing the Double Up function each hand till it was both a minimum of $1,200 (producing a W2g) or lowered to zero. 

I by no means performed this personally. I didn’t imagine the promotion would final, and so I let others do it. However, for right now, I’d like to debate my methodology of determining how a lot it was value.

Betting $75 a hand is like enjoying with $15 tokens, 5 at a time — besides $15 tokens are non-existent. Nonetheless, you should utilize industrial software program to investigate the sport.

Including 1% to every of the payouts (as a result of 10% of the W2gs obtain a ten% bonus), principally provides 1% to the entire payout, or it could if NSU had been a 100% sport. However since NSU solely returns 99.728%, the addition is a mere 0.99728% quite than a full 1%.

I wished to show this to myself. And I additionally wished to see if there have been any technique adjustments between common NSU and the NSU sport with the W2g bonuses.

My selection was between utilizing WinPoker or Video Poker for Winners. I might have used both topic to the next parameters. WinPoker requires all payouts to be integers. Video Poker for Winners requires all payouts to be integers divided by 5.

Betting $15 per hand, flushes return $45. No drawback with both software program. However while you add 1% to that, you get $45.45, which turns into an issue. Neither software program can simply deal with that.

After taking a look at all of the numbers, I made a decision to multiply the entire returns by 120 and use WinPoker. That may make all of the 5-coin returns integers.

Here’s what I obtained, after deleting a number of columns within the WinPoker evaluation:

Additional Analyzing Dotty’s Double Up Promotion

The primary column is the title of the hand. Columns 2-4 give the outcomes for the bottom sport. Columns 5-7 give the outcomes for the sport the place all returns are multiplied by 1.01. On the backside, I divided the returns by 120 in order to convey them into perspective.

By evaluating the payouts between the 2 video games, you may see how I added 1% to every payout. When you see it carried out, it’s straightforward to conclude that this was a straightforward adjustment to make. And it was.

As anticipated, the return of the sport elevated by virtually 1%. (The slot membership paid 0.2% throughout sure hours and there have been different promotions as nicely.) A 1% edge on a sport the place you play $75 a hand is fairly large. Enjoying for stakes that dimension, most video poker gamers must make do with a lot smaller edges.

I didn’t anticipate there to be any strategic adjustments since every little thing went up by 1%, however it was comforting to see it within the numbers. WinPoker says full homes, for instance, happen each 38.29139 fingers in each video games. That’s quite a lot of decimal locations. If there have been technique changes, the frequency of the fingers could be completely different. Because the frequencies didn’t change, the technique stayed the identical. Many promotions change the technique. This one didn’t.

Kudos to these gamers who figured this out in actual time. I wasn’t a kind of gamers. After the very fact, had I figured it out earlier, I could or might not have determined to play it. Sure, it wasn’t going to final for lengthy. However it was a bountiful promotion whereas it did.


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